Distribution of Vacant Homes in Tama City in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Estimation Using GIS and Small Area Statistics

Abstract

Using a geographic information system (GIS) and small area statistics, this paper estimated the distribution of vacant homes in Tama city located in the suburbs of the Tokyo metropolitan area. It is estimated that in Tama city, the number of vacant homes doubled in the 10 years until 2015 and that the residential vacancy rate also increased twofold. In Tama city, vacant homes emerged significantly in an area where private apartment houses are built. It is estimated that, in recent years, vacant homes in this area increased markedly. People of younger generations who rent a house to attend university or commute for work are decreasing here. It is therefore considered that the vacancy of apartment houses and condominiums will increase. If the decrease of younger people continues because of a decline in the number of children or increased return to the center of metropolis, then vacant homes will increase further in private rented complex housing. The southern part of Tama city is a new town area developed by a public entity where vacant homes increased greatly in rental housing of Urban Renaissance Agency during the past 10 years. This trend is partly attributable to the excessive number of residents other than elderly people moving out of older housing, although resident recruitment was halted temporarily because of renovation.