Fiscal sustainability and fiscal risk in the EU: forecasts and challenges in terms of COVID-19

Abstract

This study focuses on examining the relationship between fiscal and debt sustainability indicators in EU Member States, based on the multidimensional approach to estimating and forecasting different time horizons applied by the European Commission. The relationship between fiscal sustainability and the numerical fiscal rules applied at national and supranational level in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact has been established. The dynamics of medium-term risks in the Member States of the European Union for the period 2015 - 2019 is traced. The main challenges to fiscal sustainability in the European space in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic are outlined.