End stage renal disease patients' projections using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

End stage renal disease (ESRD) patients' number continuous increase remains one of the major problems of this century. In 2007 about 11300 ESRD patients were in need of renal replacement therapy (RRT) in Greece. Same year Greece have been on the 8th place internationally in the prevalence per million population (pmp) in RRT and on the 4th place in the incidence pmp of ESRD patients, dropping only behind United States, Japan and Germany. ESRD treatment methods are considered to be one of the most expensive procedures for chronic conditions worldwide. Predicting future patients' number on RRT is essential for health care providers in order to achieve more effective resource management. In this work we present a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation for predicting the future number of ESRD patients for the period 2008-2012 in Greece. Continuous increase in incidence and prevalence was projected, resulting in 26% prevalence increase in 2012 compared to 2007. © 2010 International Federation for Medical and Biological Engineering.