Simulating the impact of climate change on chickpea yield under rainfed and irrigated conditions in Madhya Pradesh

Abstract

CROPGRO-chickpea model calibrated and validated with data collected from the experiments conducted with two cultivars (JG 315 and JG 11) of chickpea at Jabalpur (irrigated) and Tikamgarh (rainfed) during 2009-10 and 2010-11, was used to study the impact of climate change on phenology, growth and yield of chickpea. It was found that model closely simulated the phenological event as well as biomass. The model underestimated seed yield of both the cultivars but more error was involved in simulation of JG 11. Under rainfed conditions there was large differences between observed and simulated. Under climate change scenarios (increasing maximum temperature by +1 to +3 °C, minimum temperature by+0.5 to 2.5°C and CO2 from 400 to 600ppm); the seed yield of the chickpea cultivars would increased by 102.8 and 187.7 per cent under irrigated conditions at Jabalpur. The large variability in yield was noted under rainfed as compared to irrigated conditions.