Projections of Maximum Tidal Inundation Limits of Estuaries and Lagoons of the South Algarve, Forced by Mean Sea Level Rise: RCP8.5 Scenario

Abstract

In the present study, we adopted the Hybrid Estuarine Sedimentation Model to simulate the estuarine and lagoon evolution in the South Algarve region due to projected mean sea level rise (MSLR) and sediment deficit sce- narios during the 21st century. Thus, we forecasted morphological evolution of six large and medium size estuaries (Guadiana Alcantarilha, Arade, Gilão, Quarteira River, Alvor and a coastal lagoon system (Ria Formosa lagoon) due to the imposed scenarios of MSLR. The projected digital elevation models were used to identify the maximum tidal limits of each system by the year 2100. According to the results, in all cases, saltmarsh habitats and sand flats will be affected severely in response to upper-limit of RCP8.5 scenario of MSLR by 2100. The conjugation of the increase of the mud-flat area and the decrease of saltmarshes will result in the reduction of habitats and then of biodiversity. Habitats associated with the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon and the Guadiana estuary are highly vulnerable to the worst case scenario of MSLR (90 cm higher relative to the year 2011). Agricultural and aquaculture areas in all study areas will be affected due to the landward translation limits of the intertidal areas. Accordingly, it would be advisable to adopt measures to minimize the socio- economic impacts and loss of ecosystem services in the South Algarve due to climate change driven MSLR during the 21st century and beyond while taking adaptation actions to prevent the loss of environmentally sensitive habitats like salt marshes and sand dunes. Keywords: