Risk attitudes and the propensity to vote for a new party in multi-party systems

Abstract

The effect of risk attitudes on voting behavior is the subject of increasing attention in the literature. This paper investigates the effect of risk attitudes on the likelihood of voting for a new party in multi-party systems. I argue that voting for a new party entails more uncertainty than voting for an established one; because the policy stance, the electoral success, and the efficiency of the agent–principal relationship are more difficult to predict. Consequently, risk-averse voters should be less likely to vote for a new party than risk-acceptant voters, ceteris paribus. This paper uses the Swiss case, where two new parties appeared on the political scene at the federal level between 2007 and 2011, to evaluate this proposition. The results show that the more risk averse a voter is, the less likely he is to vote for a new party.