Loss estimation module in the second generation software QLARM

Abstract

Currently, we are constructing our second-generation loss estimation tool QLARM (earthQuake Loss Assessment for Response and Mitigation) and upgrading the input database to be used in real-time and scenario mode. Our tool and database are open to all scientific users. The estimates include: (1) total number of fatalities and injured, (2) casualties by settlement, (3) percent of buildings in five damage grades, and (4) a map showing mean damage by settlement. The QLARM worldwide database of the elements-at-risk consists of city models constructed with the following parameters: (1) soil amplification factors, (2) distribution of building stock and population into vulnerability classes of the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98). We calculate damage and losses using vulnerability curves, regionally-based collapse models, and casualty matrices pertinent to EMS-98 vulnerability classes as a function of the seismic intensity. We calibrate our tool for different countries and regions worldwide considering macroseismic, damage, and loss data from past events. Thus, we calculate human losses for past earthquakes correctly to within a factor of 2, on average. Recently, we used QLARM to estimate expected human losses for the metropolitan area of Lima in case of a hypothetical earthquake of magnitude 8 in the immediate vicinity offshore of Lima.