Dynamic Flood Risk Modelling in Human–Flood Systems

Abstract

Effective flood risk management is highly relevant for advancing climate change adaptation. It needs to be based on risk modelling that considers the dynamics, complex interactions and feedbacks in human–flood systems. In this regard, we review recent advancements in understanding, quantifying and modelling changes in risk and its drivers. A challenge for integrating human behaviour in dynamic risk assessments and modelling is the combined consideration of qualitative and quantitative data. Advancements in this respect are (1) the compilation and analysis of comprehensive qualitative and quantitative data on flood risk changes in case studies following the paired event concept; (2) the integration of qualitative and quantitative data into socio-hydrological models using Bayesian inference; and (3) the coupling of hydrological flood risk models with behaviour models in socio-hydrological modelling systems. We recommend to further develop these approaches and use more such process-based, dynamic modelling also for large-scale flood risk analyses. These approaches are increasingly feasible due to significant improvements in computational power and data science.