Production and consumption of foodgrains in India: implications of accelerated economic growth and poverty alleviation

Abstract

Comparing the early 1950s to mid-1960s with the mid-1960s to early 1980s, there was a sharp decline in the latter period in the growth rate of foodgrain area, indicating its declining potential. Yield-based growth, however, has sharply increased in importance, contributing over 90% of the growth in production during 1975/76-1983/84. At the national level, growth in the yields of individual crops has been of major importance behind the growth in overall yields and production of foodgrains. Examination of all-India input use levels shows large increases in recent years, analysis indicates a decline in the aggregate input productivities between 1969/70-1971/72 and 1981/82-1983/84, apparently beginning around 1977/78. The decline in input response, particularly aggregate fertilizer productivity, may be due in part to persistent concentration of input use in some areas and poor management toward maximizing response in others. From the early 1950s to the early 1980s, the per capita availability of foodgrains for human consumption, on a three-year moving average basis, has fluctuated within a narrow band of 150-170 kg/yr with a statistically insignificant trend. Thus, foodgrain production growth seems to have been largely absorbed by population growth, reduction in imports, and increase in stocks. On the consumption side, the study made particular efforts to examine the implications of the two objectives set by the Indian planners - acceleration of economic growth and elimination of poverty by 2000. Results showed that the foodgrain consumption (demand) outcome in 2000 can vary from 206 to 240 million tons including seed, feed, other uses, and wastage. The estimates show, in particular, that achieving the two objectives is likely to have a substantial impact on the demand for foodgrains. -from Authors