Effective Stochastic Algorithm in Disease Prediction

Abstract

Traditionally, the main process for olive fruit fly population monitoring is trap measurements. Although the above procedure is time-consuming, it gives important information about when there is an outbreak of the population and how the insect is spatially distributed in the olive grove. Most studies in the literature are based on the combination of trap and environmental data measurements. Strictly speaking, the dynamics of olive fruit fly population is a complex system affected by a variety of factors. However, the collection of environmental data is costly, and sensor data often require additional processing and cleaning. In order to study the volatility of correlation in trap counts and how it is connected with population outbreaks, a stochastic algorithm, based on a stochastic differential model, is experimentally applied. The results allow us to predict early population outbreaks allowing for more efficient and targeted spraying.