Demography and democracy

Abstract

The demographic dividend (DD) refers to the accelerated economic growth countries can achieve as their age structures mature through the demographic transition from high to low fertility and mortality. Over the last two decades, enthusiasm around the prospect of a DD has spread across countries with high fertility, motivating new policy and program agendas oriented around its attainment. Yet progress towards achievement of the DD’s potential economic boost remains elusive. The number of countries that have demonstrably attained a DD is few-less than 10 if a rigorous definition is applied. Further, the breadth of the interventions and conditions included in DD theory, and potential interactions between them, constrain efforts to translate research findings into actionable guidance for decisionmakers. This chapter reviews the age structural and broader health, human capital, and economic policy prerequisites for the DD, drawing on the surprisingly scant literature on specific interventions that motivate or inhibit attainment of the dividend, and outlines recommendations for further research and analysis that could improve the relevance of the DD for country policymakers.