Future scenarios of economic development

Abstract

Poverty and equity may be influenced directly by the macro-economic enabling conditions as well as macro-economic performance. To enhance the usefulness of scenario narratives with implied economic development paths, components of macro-economic performance related to deltas are identified. Patterns of resource and land ownership, infrastructure, financial capital and natural resource management are among the components discussed and qualitatively projected to 2030. Quantification of future economic variables in integrated analysis is presented with the national and regional policy levers which influence the likelihood of individual development paths. The analysis emphasises that the range of economic and other policy instruments available in Bangladesh can ensure that economic development follows a path that significantly reduces the vulnerability of the population to climate—and other environmental—change.