Demography and Democracy: Exploring the Linkage Between Age and Voter Turnout in Italy with Geospatial Analysis

Abstract

Electoral outcomes in both established and new democracies alike generate a flurry of interest and analysis. However, the reasons to vote or not are varied. Herein lays a large part of the problem in trying to provide a single explanation for declining turnout for an entire country. In different places within a country different mixes of reasons may be at work. This geographic analysis of voter turnout focuses upon contemporary Italian democracy. Italy is a compelling case in which to examine the relationship between demography and democracy for several reasons. First, Italy is renowned for its historically high voter turnout rates. In the eighteen national elections since 1948, well over 80 % of voters turned out in each and every political contest. Second, as alluded to previously, Italy has one of the highest proportions of citizens aged 65 and over in the world. Coupled with one of the world’s lowest birthrates, it is projected that Italy will experience a significant population decline in the decades to come. Third, Italy is often considered to be divided into two distinct geographic regions: a prosperous, civic-minded and European-oriented north versus an underdeveloped, peripheral, stagnant and corrupt south. Sub-divisions of this twofold division are also very common, as we discuss later. Fourth, the economic crisis of 2008 ushered in a remarkable period of social, political and economic turmoil across the Eurozone, and resulted in several austerity measures, some of which have been particularly acute for Italy and many Italians. Finally, the 2013 general election marked low-points in terms of voter turnout, and more generally, public attitudes towards Italian politics and politicians. Recognizing how such factors influence political participation differently in different places across Italy will shed light on the age-turnout nexus, and highlight the value of incorporating spatial concepts and theories into demographic-based accounts of politics.