Population Projections

Abstract

Population projection was mentioned briefly in Chap. 4 when in Fig. 4.8 a Lexis-type diagram was presented to illustrate how projecting a population n-years into the future entailed (in part) forward survival of both the population at the beginning of the projection period and the births that would occur during the projection period. Population projection is arguably the most marketable skill demographers have – their bread and butter, widely assumed by potential employers to be their core business. It is fundamental to what is often termed ‘applied demography’ (Rowland 2003), defined by Siegel (2001: 2) as ‘the sub-field of demography concerned with the application of the materials and methods of demography to the analysis and solution of the problems of business, private non-profit organizations, and governments, at the local, national, and international levels, with a primary orientation toward particular areas and the present and future.’ National statistical agencies, businesses and planning agencies at various levels from national through regional to local government recruit demographers first and foremost with an expectation that they will be skilled in preparing and/or making intelligent use of population projections. The provision of all manner of services and facilities is dependent on quality estimates of future demographic trends at all levels, from national to local, to ensure to the maximum extent possible that they are provided on time, in sufficient quantity and where, geographically, they are needed. Businesses also have a major interest in population projections as they plan the marketing of their products and the locations of their activities. And government policy formulation in areas like immigration, housing, education and ageing is underpinned by population projections.