Accounting for spatio-temporal and sampling dependence in survey and CPUE biomass indices: simulation and Bayesian modeling framework

Abstract

Estimating changes in the biomass of a fish stock is crucial for successful management. However, fishery assessment may be affected by the quality of the inputs used in stock assessment models. Survey biomass indices derived from fishery-independent and catch per unit effort (CPUE) biomass indices derived from fishery-dependent data are key inputs for model calibration. These indices have biases that could compromise the accuracy of the stock assessment models results. Therefore, there are plenty proposed methods to standardize survey or CPUE biomass data. From simpler models like generalized linear models (GLMs) to more complex models that take into account spatio-temporal correlation, like geostatistical models, and sampling dependence, like marked point processes. But many of them do not consider the underlying spatio-temporal or sampling dependence of these data. Hence, the goal of the study is to present a spatio-temporal simulation and Bayesian modeling framework to assess the impact of applying models that do not consider spatio-temporal and sampling dependence. Results indicate that geostatistical models and marked point processes achieve the lowest measures of error. Hence, to capture the underlying spatio-temporal process of the survey and CPUE biomass indices and data sampling preferentiality, it is essential to apply models that consider the spatio-temporal and sampling dependence.