Slow Slip History for the MEXICO Subduction Zone: 2005 Through 2011

Abstract

To further our understanding of the seismically hazardous Mexico subduction zone, we estimate the first time-dependent slip distributions and Coulomb failure stress changes for the six major slow slip events (SSEs) that occurred below Mexico between late 2005 and mid-2011. Slip distributions are the first to be estimated from all continuous GPS data in central and southern Mexico, which better resolves slow slip in space and time than was previously possible in this region. Below Oaxaca, slip during previously un-modeled SSEs in 2008/9 and 2010/11 extended farther to the west than previous SSEs. This constitutes the first evidence that slow slip accounts for deep slip within a previously noted gap between the Oaxaca and Guerrero SSE source regions. The slip that we estimate for the two SSEs that originated below Guerrero between 2005 and 2011 agrees with slip estimated in previous, mostly static-offset SSE modeling studies; however, we show that both SSEs migrated eastward toward the Oaxaca SSE source region. In accord with previous work, we find that slow slip below Guerrero intrudes up-dip into the potentially seismogenic region, presumably accounting for some of the missing slip within the well-described Guerrero seismic gap. In contrast, slow slip below Oaxaca between 2005 and 2011 occurred mostly down-dip from the seismogenic regions defined by the rupture zones of large thrust earthquakes in 1968 and 1978 and released all of the slip deficit that accumulated in the down-dip region during this period.