A machine learning classifier using 33 host immune response mRNAs accurately distinguishes viral and non-viral acute respiratory illnesses in nasal swab samples

Abstract

Background: Viral acute respiratory illnesses (viral ARIs) contribute significantly to human morbidity and mortality worldwide, but their successful treatment requires timely diagnosis of viral etiology, which is complicated by overlap in clinical presentation with the non-viral ARIs. Multiple pandemics in the twenty-first century to date have further highlighted the unmet need for effective monitoring of clinically relevant emerging viruses. Recent studies have identified conserved host response to viral infections in the blood. Methods: We hypothesize that a similarly conserved host response in nasal samples can be utilized for diagnosis and to rule out viral infection in symptomatic patients when current diagnostic tests are negative. Using a multi-cohort analysis framework, we analyzed 1555 nasal samples across 10 independent cohorts dividing them into training and validation. Results: Using six of the datasets for training, we identified 119 genes that are consistently differentially expressed in viral ARI patients (N = 236) compared to healthy controls (N = 146) and further down-selected 33 genes for classifier development. The resulting locked logistic regression-based classifier using the 33-mRNAs had AUC of 0.94 and 0.89 in the six training and four validation datasets, respectively. Furthermore, we found that although trained on healthy controls only, in the four validation datasets, the 33-mRNA classifier distinguished viral ARI from both healthy or non-viral ARI samples with > 80% specificity and sensitivity, irrespective of age, viral type, and viral load. Single-cell RNA-sequencing data showed that the 33-mRNA signature is dominated by macrophages and neutrophils in nasal samples. Conclusion: This proof-of-concept signature has potential to be adapted as a clinical point-of-care test (‘RespVerity’) to improve the diagnosis of viral ARIs.