Superensemble technique for tropical cyclone prediction

Abstract

The superensemble is a weighted mean that extracts useful information from an ensemble of multimodel forecasts to produce optimal guidance for decision makers. The superensemble has significant advantages over simple forecast averaging: it corrects for known biases in the individual objective forecasts, and it weights them to leverage the fact that objective forecasting tools often have regional skill variations. It makes use of as many as 10 million weights, that is a product of grid points in the horizontal, vertical levels in the model, the number of variables and the number of models.