Application of discrete-event simulation to capacity planning at a commercial airport

Abstract

We describe the construction, calibration and application of a discrete-event simulation model to estimate the potential effects of changes in airport infrastructure, operating procedures, and traffic intensity upon system performance. Logistic and regression models provide time-varying parameters for probability distributions used for physical processes. Detailed event logs of simulated aircraft activity and corresponding logs of actual aircraft operations allow us to validate the model and analyze the effects of normal disruptions and extraordinary events. With multivariate statistical analysis, we assess the influence of design capacity, airline scheduling practices and uncontrollable events on flight delays. We also estimate the effects of selectively removing airport assets from service for major maintenance.