A behavioral analysis in decision making using weather information with the fuzzy target based decision model

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss a behavioral model of decision making using weather information, making use of the so-called fuzzy target based decision model. Due to forecasting uncertainty in weather forecasts, many decision problems in practice influenced by weather information have been formulated as that of decision making under uncertainty. After introducing the fuzzy target based decision model which states that, after assessing a fuzzy target, the decision maker should select the decision which maximizes the probability of meeting his target, we will show that different behaviors of the decision maker about his target can lead to different decisions. This behavioral analysis not only provides an interpretation for influence of psychological personality features of the decision maker on his decisions, but also has a corresponding link to attitudes towards risk in terms of utility function. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.