BitCoin meets Google Trends and Wikipedia: Quantifying the relationship between phenomena of the Internet era

Abstract

Digital currencies have emerged as a new fascinating phenomenon in the financial markets. Recent events on the most popular of the digital currencies - BitCoin - have risen crucial questions about behavior of its exchange rates and they offer a field to study dynamics of the market which consists practically only of speculative traders with no fundamentalists as there is no fundamental value to the currency. In the paper, we connect two phenomena of the latest years - digital currencies, namely BitCoin, and search queries on Google Trends and Wikipedia - and study their relationship. We show that not only are the search queries and the prices connected but there also exists a pronounced asymmetry between the effect of an increased interest in the currency while being above or below its trend value.