Driving factors of recent vegetation changes in Hexi Region, Northwest China based on a new classification framework

Abstract

Since other factors (soil properties, topography, etc.) under natural conditions are relatively invariant over one or two decades, climate variables (precipitation and temperature) and human activities are the two fundamental factors driving vegetation changes in global or large-scale areas. However, the combined effects of either single climatic factor and human activities on vegetation changes and the role of human activities itself in a specific region has not been fully discussed. In this study, the Hexi region, a typical dryland consisting of three inland river basins in northwest China was selected as a case area. A new classification framework combining Pearson correlation analysis and residual trend approach was proposed to assess their individual and conjoint contributions of climate variables and human activities in areas of significant vegetation changes. Our results indicated that most of vegetation covered areas in the Hexi region experienced significant changes during the period 2001-2017, and vegetation improvements were widespread except the interior of oases; significant changes in vegetation caused by human activities, precipitation, the interactions of precipitation and human activities, temperature, the interactions of temperature and human activities, the interactions of temperature and precipitation, and the interactions of the three factors accounted for 50.46%, 16.39%, 19.90%, 4.33%, 2.32%, 2.11%, and 4.49% of the total change areas, respectively. Generally, the influence of temperature was relatively weaker than that of precipitation, and the contributions of the interactions of climate variables and human activities on vegetation changes were greater than that of climate contributions alone. Moreover, the results of various investigations, according to the trends and the time of vegetation changes, indicate that decreasing trends of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Hexi region were chiefly attributed to the adjustments of agricultural planting structure while the comprehensive treatment programs implemented in river basins supported a large proportion of vegetation improvements.