Groundwater Management Instruments and Induced Second-Order Conflicts: The Case of the Paraíba River Basin, Brazil

Abstract

Management measures addressing water scarcity are often pointed out as resolution alternatives for first-order conflicts; however, failures in introducing such measures or their unforeseen consequences can transform them into sources for second-order conflicts caused by social resource scarcity. Hence, implications of their adoption should be analyzed. Considering unsustainable groundwater use in the Paraíba River Basin—the most important basin in the state of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil—and focusing on water quality guidelines, water permits, and bulk water charges, this paper analyzes thirteen criteria for applying these management instruments with regard to their potential for inducing second-order conflicts, and identifies the possible consequences of their adoption. Then, utilizing the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR), these consequences are introduced as management outcomes to model the conflict over groundwater residential supply in João Pessoa, the state’s capital. The analysis/modeling results can support decision-making on options to avoid/minimize second-order conflicts over groundwater management.