A physician workforce planning model applied to Canadian anesthesiology: Planning the future supply of anesthesiologists

Abstract

Purpose: To examine the supply of physician anesthesia providers necessary to accommodate the previously described clinical and non-clinical service volume needs throughout Canada Methods: The Canadian Medical Association (CMA) physician database provided baseline specialist anesthesiologists numbers and ages as of January 1, 2000. The Royal College of Physician and Surgeons of Canada (RCPSC) provided annual anesthesia certificant numbers for the period 1971-2000. Combining these data with the separately reported estimates of anesthesia provider needs for the years 1999 and 2016, the matching of anesthesia provider supply and demand during the period 2000-2016 was examined. Results: The CMA database included 2,287 anesthesiologists in Canada on January 1, 2000. The needs assessment (clinical and non-clinical) identified the requirement for 2,495 full time equivalent (FTE) anesthesiologists in 1999 and 3,265 in 2016 (31% increase). Taking into account the ages of current anesthesiologists, the increased future requirements and the current rate of graduation from RCPSC-approved training programs in Canada a deficit of at least 656 FTEs is identified for the period 2000-2016 (average 41 per year). Condusions: Canada has a current shortage of anesthesiologists. Based on the assessment of future needs in Quebec and extrapolated to all provinces, this shortage will worsen, unless Canadian training programs are expanded or other steps are taken to augment the numbers of anesthesia practitioners. Ongoing studies in each province are required to validate and update these conclusions.