Future Atoll Scenarios: Adaptation Strategies and Their Implication Under UNCLOS

Abstract

It is a difficult task to predict what will actually happen to Atoll Island States in the future, though a number of scenarios and adaptation counter-measures can be envisaged, which will be discussed in terms of how each will affect the delimitation of maritime zones. It is important to note that the viability of these measures will depend on the financial capacity of each Atoll Island State, with smaller atolls on poorer countries probably disappearing first. The disappearance of each individual island would have consequences for the ability of an Archipelagic State to continue to claim an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) around it, while the submergence of the last island in the country could affect its status as a sovereign State. The problems presented in this chapter are examined from an interdisciplinary engineering and international law approach in order to evaluate what could be the most desirable adaptation strategy. The engineering options that would allow an Atoll Island States to protect coastal areas will be examined together with suggestions by international law researchers on how the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) could be interpreted or amended in order to preserve the maritime boundaries of Atoll States. Although amendments to such treaties would be welcome, the difficulty and cost involved in doing so probably means that it would be better to invest resources in protecting the coral reefs or (if this is not possible) in constructing traditional coastal defence mechanisms and raising key islands within the archipelago.