Heuristic appraisal at the frontier of research

Abstract

How can we speed up both basic and translational scientific research without major new financial investment? One way is to speed up the process by which good proposals are funded. Another is to do a better job of identifying research that is potentially transformative. There are internal institutional barriers as well as sluggish and conservative policies in place in many government funding agencies, universities, and private firms, policies that are risk-averse and characterized by short-term accounting. While perhaps calling for transformational research, their selection procedures promote normal basic research and translational research instead. This chapter proposes that progress can be made by giving increased weight to heuristic appraisal—appraisal of the future promise of proposed research—and correspondingly less weight to confirmational appraisal—the logical and probabilistic relations between theories and data sets already on the table. Emphasis on the latter, as studied by traditional confirmation theory, is a legacy of logical positivism. Adapting a form of scenario planning from the business community is one positive suggestion.