Impact of climate change on paddy production in malaysia: Empirical analysis at the national and state level experience

Abstract

Rice is the staple diet of the people in Malaysia. Nearly 70% of the rice is produced locally and the rest is imported. Paddy production is highly susceptible to extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. This vulnerability regarding paddy production has increased in recent decades due to climate change (CC). In this study we examined impact of climate and other variables on paddy production in Malaysia using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model both with national and state level (Kedah) data. The results from the ARDL model show that national paddy production in Malaysia is affected by increasing temperature which reduces paddy production by 7% in the long run. Paddy production in Kedah state is affected by rainfall which reduces paddy output by 0.371% in the long run. Malaysia will not be able to achieve rice self-sufficiency unless the government takes action to mitigate climate change and minimize losses. Immediate adaptation and mitigation strategies are imperative to prevent unfavorable outcomes. Appropriate policy changes are required to make sure that the paddy industry in Malaysia works within important climate parameters.