Possible factors promoting car evacuation in the 2011 tohoku tsunami revealed by analysing a large-scale questionnaire survey in kesennuma city

Abstract

Excessive car evacuation can cause severe traffic jams that can lead to large numbers of casualties during tsunami disasters. Investigating the possible factors that lead to unnecessary car evacuation can ensure smoother tsunami evacuations and mitigate casualty damages in future tsunami events. In this study, we quantitatively investigated the possible factors that promote car evacuation, including both necessary and unnecessary usages, by statistically analysing a large amount of data on actual tsunami evacuation behaviours surveyed in Kesennuma, where devastating damage occurred during the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami. A straightforward statistical analysis revealed a high percentage of car evacuations (approx. 50%); however, this fraction includes a high number of unnecessary usage events that were distinguished based on mode choice reasons. In addition, a binary logistic regression was conducted to quantitatively evaluate the effects of several factors and to identify the dominant factor that affected evacuation mode choice. The regression results suggested that the evacuation distance was the dominant factor for choosing car evacuation relative to other factors, such as age and sex. The cross-validation test of the regression model demonstrated that the considered factors were useful for decision making and the prediction of evacuation mode choice in the target area.