The Sernbo score as a predictor of 1-year mortality after hip fracture: a registry study on 55,716 patients

Abstract

Purpose: Patients sustaining a hip fracture have a high mortality rate during the first postoperative year and the Sernbo score may stratify patients into a high, intermediate and low risk of death during this period. We assessed its predictive properties on patients from the National Swedish Hip Fracture Register. Patients and methods: 55,716 hip fracture patients, 69% women older than 65 years at surgery (registered between 2010 and 2015) with complete Sernbo scores and mortality data were studied. Receiver-operating characteristics analyses (ROC) were used. Validation of Sernbo score was performed. Results: The overall 1-year mortality rate was 26%—and 17%, 27.4% and 55.6% in the low, intermediate and high-risk groups, respectively. The ROC analysis indicated a predictive ability of the Sernbo score, with an AUC of 0.69 (CI 0.68–0.69). Conclusion: In this registry-based study, the easy-to-use Sernbo scoring system proved to be appropriate and useful way to identify hip fracture patients with a high-risk mortality during the first postoperative year.