Adaptation to Climate Change and Other Emergent Conditions with Inland and Terrestrial Infrastructure Systems with Application Case Studies

Abstract

This paper describes several cases that explore the impacts of potential emergent conditions, including climate change and other factors, to infrastructure systems and mission assurance. The cases suggest a need to account in strategic planning for combinations of emergent conditions, including climate, economic, technological, social, and political conditions. We define scenarios to be specific combinations of diverse emergent conditions. We discuss the implications of emergent conditions for multicriteria analysis of strategic investments. The identification of influential emergent conditions can focus investigative and modeling efforts on issues of concern for long time horizons. The several cases are: (i) inland training ranges in Alaska, (ii) communities of Alaska vulnerable to coastal erosion, and (iii) energy security of military installations. The approach is generalizable to highlight the combinations of emergent conditions that should be influential to adaptation and strategic planning for inland and terrestrial infrastructure systems.