Assortative mating in the age of marriage decline: A cohort comparison of couple's patterns of educational attainment

Abstract

This study investigates trends of educational assortative mating and its causes in Japan, where there has been a rapid increase in the unmarried population. Past studies, which have examined assortative mating as a measure of social openness, did not consider the influence of the rise in this population. Against these studies, I examined trends in educational assortative mating focusing on the role of marriage decline. A survival analysis using SSM2015 data reveals two points. First, a retreat from marriage has continuously increased among all groups, while there has been a decline in the marriage rate at age 40 among female university graduates in a recent cohort. Second, decomposing hazard rate of marriage into spouse’s educational attainment shows a relative change in couple’s educational coupling. Due to the women’s improved access to higher education that accompanies a relative decline in highly educated men, university educated women are more likely marry down in a recent cohort. Junior/high school and junior college graduates are more likely to marry a man graduated from junior colleges and less likely to marry am university educated man, while a marriage with junior/high school educated men did not increase. The results suggest that, through the persistent male breadwinner model and recent employment instability, educational assortative mating among the low and high educated women decreased in parallel with the trends in marriage delay and foregone.