Predicting general criminal recidivism in mentally disordered offenders using a random forest approach

Abstract

Background: Psychiatric expert opinions are supposed to assess the accused individual's risk of reoffending based on a valid scientific foundation. In contrast to specific recidivism, general recidivism has only been poorly considered in Continental Europe; we therefore aimed to develop a valid instrument for assessing the risk of general criminal recidivism of mentally ill offenders. Method: Data of 259 mentally ill offenders with a median time at risk of 107months were analyzed and combined with the individuals' criminal records. We derived risk factors for general criminal recidivism and classified re-offences by using a random forest approach. Results: In our sample of mentally ill offenders, 51% were reconvicted. The most important predictive factors for general criminal recidivism were: number of prior convictions, age, type of index offence, diversity of criminal history, and substance abuse. With our statistical approach we were able to correctly identify 58-95% of all reoffenders and 65-97% of all committed offences (AUC=.90). Conclusions: Our study presents a new statistical approach to forensic-psychiatric risk-assessment, allowing experts to evaluate general risk of reoffending in mentally disordered individuals, with a special focus on high-risk groups. This approach might serve not only for expert opinions in court, but also for risk management strategies and therapeutic interventions.