Effect of Breast Screening Regimen on Breast Cancer Outcomes: A Modeling Study

Abstract

Guidelines vary for the age at which to begin breast cancer screening and the interval between examinations. A validated computer model was used to compare estimated outcomes between various screening regimens. The OncoSim-Breast microsimulation model (Canadian Partnership Against Cancer) was used to simulate a cohort of 1.53 million Canadian women born in 1975. The effect of screening regimen on absolute breast cancer mortality rates, stage at diagnosis, number needed to be screened to avert a breast cancer death or save a life year, abnormal recall rates and negative biopsy rates was examined for unscreened women or those entering screening at age 40 or 50 and screened annually or biennially to age 74. Compared to no screening, absolute mortality reduction was 4.6 (biennial 50–74), 5.9 (biennial 40–74) and 7.9 (annual 40–74) fewer deaths per 1000 women. The absolute rate of diagnosis of advanced cancers (Stage 2, 3 and 4) falls in favor of earlier stages as the number of lifetime screens increases. Annual screening beginning at age 40 until age 74 would provide an additional reduction of 2 and 3.3 breast cancer deaths per 1000 women compared to biennial screening beginning at ages 40 and 50, respectively. There is a corresponding drop in the absolute number of Stage 2, 3 and 4 cancers diagnosed.