Application of evidence theory and neural network in warning system of financial risk

Abstract

In warning system of financial risk, there are different relations between financial risk and factors. So the traditional prediction method can't get the accurate result. Based on the theory of economical forecast and warning, this paper gives a new method that uses neural network to estimate deterministic factors and experts to forecast uncertain factors, to get the ideal result by evidential combination of the predictions come from the certain and uncertain factors. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2005.