Knowledge for transformational adaptation planning: Comparing the potential of forecasting and backcasting methods for assessing people’s vulnerability

Abstract

In recent years there has been growing recognition that people’s vulnerability is not just as an outcome of possible climate impacts, but rather a dynamic contextual characteristic of a socio-ecological system. Accordingly, along with the acknowledgement of the close connection between climate change adaptation and sustainable development, the scientific debate on adaptation has increasingly focused on the issue of transformation of current systems in response to a changing environment. The need for transformational adaptation, especially in high vulnerability contexts, induces planners to broaden and diversify both knowledge and methods to deal with the growing uncertainty and complexity of socio-ecological systems. By focusing on future studies, this chapter aims to explore the transformational knowledge contribution of forecasting and participatory backcasting methods in assessing people’s vulnerability using the case study of coastal Dar es Salaam (Tanzania). Participatory backcasting helps understanding contextual vulnerability and community aspirations, and defining shared adaptation goals and action. Conversely, forecasting proves to be fundamental for the identification of boundary conditions and system thresholds relevant to a specific problem, thus providing knowledge that is valuable for integrating global and local perspectives.