Exploring influence of state economic policy on political preferences of population using agent modeling

Abstract

In this paper we present a model of dynamics of political preferences considering current economic situation and expected changes. The model is agent-based and represents demographic structure and economy of the Russian Federation. Political system in the model is democratic, consisting of Legislative and Executive. Legislative is multiparty; each party proposes a pre-election program to attract voters. Agents are grouped into clusters that are homogeneous in political preferences. Belonging to the cluster determines issues of pre-election programs that are important for the agent. Agents implement concept of retrospective economic voting, for this they keep a record of their subjective estimates of living standards in previous periods. After elections Legislative and Executive are formed. Legislative proposes laws and approves structure of the state budget. Executive implements measures of state social, monetary and economic policy that affect organizations and population.