Data based modeling

Abstract

Statisticians spend a great deal of time coming up with tests that are frequently useless in practice and then proving the asymptotic optimality of the tests under the assumption of conditions that do not actually exist. There is another approach: we can use the data to build models. This is the goal of Tukey's "Exploratory Data Analysis." In this paper I will be examining alternatives to the Neoclassical Analysis of the stock market, the dominant view still in schools of business, data notwithstanding. Then I will give a brief analysis of the breakdown of America's public health service in stopping the progression of the AIDS epidemic and demonstrate that simply closing down the gay bathhouses would have prevented AIDS from progressing from an endemic to a full blown epidemic which has already killed more Americans than died in the two world wars.