Pyramids, toxic wastes and nuclear reactors containments: A lesson drawn from history with a risk manager perspective

Abstract

Risk Assessments for “perpetuity” (geo-engineering) projects, i.e. projects that should last “forever” and/or receive “perpetual care”, are raising in number and criticality. These project are oftentimes linked to the storage of wastes containing toxic, not easy to neutralize, not necessarily radioactive, compounds. No prior Human generation had to tackle this problem because: (a) produced volumes were insignificant or (b) there was no real understanding of “perpetuity”. This paper compares the “historic” world-wide rate of major accidents of Tailings Dams and Nuclear Reactors to previously published acceptability criteria and codes. The paper shows how a generic modern “excellent quality” dam probability of failure can be estimated, how the initial probability of failure will evolve during the dam life, as care and monitoring are released in the post production phase and under different hazards. The paper then explores selected Human geo-structures survivability experience and finally suggests a model for long term risk evolution of Tailings Dams, with particular emphasis on post production/closure.