The main factors influencing COVID-19 spread and deaths in Mexico: A comparison between phases I and II

Abstract

This article investigates the geographical spread of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths across municipalities in Mexico. It focuses on the spread dynamics and containment of the virus between Phase I (from March 23 to May 31, 2020) and Phase II (from June 1 to August 22, 2020) of the social distancing measures. It also examines municipal-level factors associated with cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths to understand the spatial determinants of the pandemic. The analysis of the geographic pattern of the pandemic via spatial scan statistics revealed a fast spread among municipalities. During Phase I, clusters of infections and deaths were mainly located at the country's center, whereas in Phase II, these clusters dispersed to the rest of the country. The regression results from the zero-inflated negative binomial regression analysis suggested that income inequality, the prevalence of obesity and diabetes, and concentration of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) are strongly positively associated with confirmed cases and deaths regardless of lockdown.