Climate change and sugarcane productivity in Karnataka

Abstract

This study aims at understanding the relationship between climatic factors and its impact on sugarcane productivity in Karnataka. To understand the above objective we estimated the factors that affect sugarcane productivity. After appropriate statistical analysis, the strength of empirical results was checked through fixed effects panel regression model and Prais–Winsten model with panel corrected standard errors models. The data point has 592 observations corresponding to 16 districts of Karnataka, selected on the basis of the agro-climatic region to which they belong, with panel data for a period of 1966–2002. Since our prime interest was sugarcane productivity it was entered as a dependent variable in the models. Average rainfall, average maximum and average minimum temperature, area under irrigation and consumption of fertilizers are considered as explanatory variables. In order to capture the variability in the climatic factors it was decomposed into four seasons, viz., monsoon, summer, autumn and winter. The results conclude that though the average rainfall in different seasons has a direct positive impact, the rainfall in summer is significantly affecting sugarcane yield. The climatic variables of average minimum and maximum temperatures in different seasons have varied impacts on the yield of sugarcane. The maximum temperature in summer and the minimum temperatures in monsoon, winter and autumn have a significant positive impact on the sugarcane yield in Karnataka, whereas maximum temperature in autumn and minimum temperature in summer has negative relationship. The study suggests that adaptation strategies need special attention on technologies and management regimes that will enhance sugarcane tolerance to fluctuating temperatures.