A recurrence-based technique for detecting genuine extremes in instrumental temperature records

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze several instrumental records of temperatures at different locations by using new techniques originally developed for the analysis of extreme values of dynamical systems. We show that they have the same recurrence time statistics as a chaotic dynamical system perturbed with dynamical noise and by instrument errors. The technique provides a criterion to discriminate whether the recurrence of a certain temperature belongs to the normal variability or can be considered as a genuine extreme event with respect to a specific timescale fixed as parameter. The method gives a self-consistent estimation of the convergence of the statistics of recurrences toward the theoretical extreme value laws. Key Points The method distinguishes between real extremes and natural climate variability The method presents a built-in test of convergence The method is easy to be implemented and fast ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.