Modeling spatial and economic impacts of disasters

Abstract

Electric power is essential for virtually every urban and economic function. Failures of electric power networks and grids — whether from natural disaster, accident, or man-made disaster such as terrorism — can cause severe and widespread societal and economic disruption. In the 1994 Northridge earthquake that struck Los Angeles, some 2.5 million customers lost electric power. For the first time in its history, the entire city of Los Angeles was blacked out. Power outages were experienced in many areas of the western U.S. outside the earthquake region and even as far away as Canada (Hall, ed., 1995). On August 14, 2003, an unprecedentedly widespread blackout rippled out from Akron, Ohio, across the northeastern U.S. and parts of Canada, affecting an area with a population of some 50 million (U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force, 2003). In September of 2003, a power outage that began in Switzerland cascaded over a large region of Italy. Examples such as these indicate the importance of being able to anticipate potential power system failures and identify effective mitigation strategies.