A Web-Based Prediction Model for Cancer-Specific Survival of Middle-Aged Patients With Non-metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study

Abstract

Background: Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is one of the most common cancers in middle-aged patients. We aimed to establish a new nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in middle-aged patients with non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma (nmRCC). Methods: The clinicopathological information of all patients from 2010 to 2018 was downloaded from the SEER database. These patients were randomly assigned to the training set (70%) and validation set (30%). Univariate and multivariate COX regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for CSS in middle-aged patients with nmRCC in the training set. Based on these independent risk factors, a new nomogram was constructed to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS in middle-aged patients with nmRCC. Then, we used the consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and area under receiver operating curve (AUC) to validate the accuracy and discrimination of the model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to validate the clinical application value of the model. Results: A total of 27,073 patients were included in the study. These patients were randomly divided into a training set (N = 18,990) and a validation set (N = 8,083). In the training set, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that age, sex, histological tumor grade, T stage, tumor size, and surgical method are independent risk factors for CSS of patients. A new nomogram was constructed to predict patients' 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS. The C-index of the training set and validation set were 0.818 (95% CI: 0.802-0.834) and 0.802 (95% CI: 0.777-0.827), respectively. The 1 -, 3 -, and 5-year AUC for the training and validation set ranged from 77.7 to 80.0. The calibration curves of the training set and the validation set indicated that the predicted value is highly consistent with the actual observation value, indicating that the model has good accuracy. DCA also suggested that the model has potential clinical application value. Conclusion: We found that independent risk factors for CSS in middle-aged patients with nmRCC were age, sex, histological tumor grade, T stage, tumor size, and surgery. We have constructed a new nomogram to predict the CSS of middle-aged patients with nmRCC. This model has good accuracy and reliability and can assist doctors and patients in clinical decision making.