A global compass for the great divergence: Emissions versus production centres of gravity 1820–2008

Abstract

We construct the world's centres of gravity for human population, GDP and CO2 emissions by taking the best out of five recognised data sources covering the last two centuries. On the basis of a novel distortion-free representation of these centres of gravity, we find a radical Western shift of GDP and CO2 emission centres in the nineteenth century, in sharp contrast with the stability of the demographic centre of gravity. Both GDP and emissions trends are reversed in the first half of the twentieth century, after World War I for CO2 emissions, after World War II for GDP. Since then, both centres are moving eastward at an accelerating speed. These patterns are perfectly consistent with the lead of Western countries starting the industrial revolution, the gradual replacement of coal by oil and gas as alternative sources of energy and the progressive catch-up of Asian countries in the recent past.