Summary, Forecast Advances, and a Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS)

Abstract

The spectacle of heavy snow and high winds in the northeast United States has been documented by the earliest settlers dating to the 17th century (Ludlum 1966). These storms, often referred to as nor’easters, have drawn the attention of some of this country’s most notable statesmen, including Benjamin Franklin, George Washington, and Thomas Jefferson; poets such as Robert Frost and John Greenleaf Whittier; and the hundreds of millions of inhabitants who have called the region home from Virginia northeastward to Maine during the past four centuries. Some of the most legendary events, such as the “great snow” of 1717, the Washington—Jefferson Snowstorm of 1772, the blizzards of 1888 and 1899, the 1922 “Knickerbocker” storm, and the great New England snowstorm of 1978 can be recalled for generations by those who have either lived through these events or learned about them through local lore. Legends and fascination aside, these winter storms have also posed enormous challenges to the meteorological research and operational communities who have attempted to understand and predict them, often with mixed results. This chapter will summarize some of the key issues raised in this monograph, focusing on the climatological, synoptic, and mesoscale aspects of these storms, and will also address the advances that have been made in forecasting Northeast winter storms, as well as the forecast challenges that remain. Finally, a Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) is presented to address the need to communicate to the public the impact of these winter storms and to provide a quantitative measure of the impact of heavy snowfall on the heavily populated Northeast urban corridor.