Hybrid Extreme Learning Machine dan Firefly Algorithm untuk Meramalkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar

Abstract

Every country has a currency as a medium of exchange and the movement of its exchange rate can affect the economy of the country. In Indonesia, since the freely floating exchange rates system has been applied in August 1997, the value of rupiah currency in the foreign exchange market can change at any time. Considering the massive impacts of exchange rate fluctuation on the economy, then forecasting the exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar is important to help Indonesia’s economic growth. The aims of this thesis is to predict the estimated exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar in the future by using hybrid artificial neural network extreme learning machine (ELM) method and firefly algorithm (FA). In the training process, ELM-FA hybrid has a role to obtain the best weight and bias. The weight and bias that obtained will be used for forecasting and to know the success rate of the training process, the validation test process is required. Based on the implementation of program and simulation for some parameter values on the exchange rate data from Jan 2015 until Jan 2018, with four input and hidden nodes, and one output node, obtained the smallest MSE of the training is 0.000480513 with MSE of the testing is 0.0000854107. The relatively small MSE value indicates that ELM-FA network is able to recognize the data pattern well and able to predict the test data well.