Spatial-temporal dynamics of transboundary forest disturbance-recovery and its influencing factors in the central Himalayas

Abstract

Transboundary forests in the Himalayas are one of the world’s biodiversity hotspots, but exploring the patterns and influencing factors related to forest disturbance-recovery is still limited. In this study, we used a random forests model, a LandTrendr temporal segmentation algorithm and geographical detector to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of forest disturbance and recovery and their influencing factors in the central Himalayas from 1995 to 2018. The results showed that forest disturbance was dominant (∼2.94 × 104 km2) and greater than recovery (∼0.56 × 104 km2). Both disturbance and recovery showed a significant decreasing trend (p < 0.01); disturbance occurred mainly at low elevations and the Gandaki basin, while recovery was in eastern Nepal. Disturbance rates were highest in Nepal (1.14%) and recovery rates in China (0.29%). The main influencing factors on forest dynamics were elevation, temperature and population. The interaction of all factors was synergistically enhanced.