A Spatio-Temporal Structured LSTM Model for Short-Term Prediction of Origin-Destination Matrix in Rail Transit with Multisource Data

Abstract

Passenger assignment of rail transit has recently attracted increasing research interest due to its potential applications in large-scale intelligent transportation systems. In the rail transit system, the foundation of passenger assignment is passengers' origin and destination demand (OD matrix). However, due to the nature of stochastic of the short-term dynamic OD matrix, how to accurately predict the distribution of passenger travel spatio-temporally is still an open challenge. In this paper, combined multisource data with deep learning method is proposed to improve prediction of dynamic OD matrix accuracy. Firstly, multisource data such as smart card data, weather data and mobile phone data are introduced. And after quantitative analysis of the influencing factors, choosing 31 features as model inputs. Secondly, considering the superiority of Long Short-term Memory Network in time series, we improve the structure of LSTM by redesigning the hidden layer and neuron, in view of the spatio-temporal characteristics of spatio-temporal Long Short-term Memory Network (STLSTM) of rail transit passenger flow. Finally, using the Beijing subway network which had 54,056OD for verification. Extensive experiments and evaluations on a large-scale dataset well demonstrate the superiority of STLSTM over commonly used prediction models and standard LSTM model for short-term prediction of dynamic OD matrix. In addition, the application method of multisource data in OD prediction in this paper can deal with more data from other sources to further improve the information exploit effect on passenger flow law.