Risk Level Assessment in Construction Projects Using the Schedule Performance Index

Abstract

Construction projects are risky in both physical implementation and management. The characteristics of the risk reinforce the necessity of efficient management to increase the chances of success without commitment to its goals. This study explores the correlation of delay and the schedule performance index (SPI) to evaluate the risk of a construction project completed with time overruns. The hypothesis that the SPI of projects with a delay is distinct from those projects without a delay is assumed. A database with 19 elements was used to test this hypothesis and to calculate limit values to the SPI. Therefore, the risk of delay will be small when the observed SPI is greater than the superior limit and large when the SPI is below the inferior limit. The simplicity involved in the calculation of these values showed an advantage in comparison with other methods of risk evaluation. Another strong point observed is that any company can determine the value of risk by considering its own history and support decisions like doing corrective actions.