Simplifying Local Area Population and Household Projections with POPART

Abstract

The preparation of local area population and household projections by age frequently involves many challenges, such as non-trivial input data costs, complex data adjustment and smoothing, boundary changes, complicated or inappropriate software, difficulties in choosing suitable projection assumptions, and tight timeframes. In the current economic climate this is often set within the context of reduced staffing and budgets. This chapter introduces the POPART (Population Projections for an Area, Region or Town) software which was developed to help overcome some of these challenges. POPART is an Excel-based bi-regional cohort-component population projection model coupled with a household model. It contains a number of features that assist the preparation of projections, including a short training period, limited input data requirements, simplified assumption-setting via summary indicators (Total Fertility Rate, life expectancy at birth, and net migration totals), and an emphasis on graphics to aid the presentation and validation of outputs. Illustrative population and household projections for the local government area of Noosa in Queensland demonstrate key features of the software.